September Sees Continued Growth in Global Air Cargo Demand with Regional Shifts
Alexandra
Steady Growth in Global Air Cargo Demand
Global air cargo demand has experienced a noticeable increase, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. In September, demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 2.9% year-over-year, while capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), grew slightly ahead at 3.0%. International operations led the charge, with demand gaining 3.2%, highlighting a resilient air freight market adapting to evolving trade dynamics.
Adapting to Changing Trade Flows
The evolving landscape of global trade has deeply influenced these air cargo patterns. A reduction in traffic between North America and Asia has been observed over recent months, largely linked to changes in tariff policies. Yet, this shortfall is compensated by robust growth within Asia, and on routes connecting Asia with Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. This demonstrates air cargo’s flexibility in responding to shifting market demands rather than signaling a downturn in international trade.
Key Industry Influencers in the Operating Environment
- Global goods trade expanded by 7% year-on-year in August, underscoring broader economic activity.
- Jet fuel prices climbed by 5.4% in September despite sliding crude oil prices, driven by a tighter diesel market that doubled the crack spread compared to last year.
- Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened as indicated by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reaching 51.3, signaling modest expansion, although new export orders remain cautious at 49.6, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Regional Performance Breakdown
| Region | World Market Share | Demand Growth (CTK YoY) | Capacity Growth (ACTK YoY) | Load Factor Change | Load Factor Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Africa | 2.0% | 14.7% | 7.4% | +2.8% | 44.4% |
| Asia-Pacific | 34.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | +0.9% | 49.3% |
| Europe | 21.5% | 2.5% | 4.4% | -0.9% | 51.3% |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 2.9% | -2.2% | 3.1% | -1.9% | 35.2% |
| Middle East | 13.6% | 0.6% | 5.5% | -2.2% | 45.4% |
| North America | 25.7% | -1.2% | -1.5% | +0.1% | 39.4% |
Insights on Regional Dynamics
Asia-Pacific airlines led with a significant 6.8% year-over-year increase in demand, supported by expansion in available capacity. This growth reflects the region's role as a key hub in global trade routes.
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African carriers exhibited remarkable growth at 14.7%, outperforming all other regions. This surge indicates increasing cargo activity tied to emerging markets and expanding trade connections.
Conversely, North American carriers faced a decline of 1.2% in demand, aligned with the noted decrease in trans-Pacific shipments due to changing economic policies. The capacity slightly contracted, consistent with this reduced demand.
European and Middle Eastern airlines saw modest gains in demand and increased their cargo capacity, maintaining steady roles in the international freight network.
Trade Lane Performance
Examining major air freight corridors reveals varied performance: robust double-digit growth was notable on key routes such as Europe–Asia and within Asia, while other corridors like Asia–North America and Middle East–Europe experienced declines.
| Trade Lane | Year-on-Year Growth | Trend Notes | Market Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Europe–Asia | +12.4% | 31 months of consecutive growth | 20.5% |
| Within Asia | +10.0% | 23 months of consecutive growth | 7.0% |
| Middle East–Asia | +4.6% | 7 months of growth | 7.4% |
| North America–Europe | +2.6% | 20 months of growth | 13.3% |
| Africa–Asia | +9.6% | 3 months of growth | 1.4% |
| Asia–North America | -3.5% | 5 months decline | 24.4% |
| Middle East–Europe | -4.6% | 2 months decline | 5.7% |
| Within Europe | -1.1% | 2 months decline | 2.0% |
Market share based on full-year 2024 cargo tonne-kilometers industry data
Historical Context: Air Cargo’s Role in Global Trade
Air cargo has evolved vastly over the decades, becoming integral to international trade by enabling speedy shipment of goods across continents. The growth pattern seen today builds on decades of technological improvements, expanding airfreight networks, and economic globalization.
Historically, air cargo has been sensitive to geopolitical shifts, tariff regulations, and fuel cost fluctuations. Despite occasional downturns linked to economic or political turbulence, the sector has consistently bounced back, adapting to new trade routes and demand centers. The recent shifts in demand away from North America–Asia toward intra-Asia and Asia-Europe routes echo air cargo’s resilience and capacity for adjustment.
The Future Outlook for Air Cargo and Connection to Global Tourism
The stabilization and anticipated growth in global air cargo demand signal positive momentum not only for freight operations but also for tourism and travel sectors. Efficient air cargo logistics support the overall supply chain for leisure destinations, including maritime and coastal resorts. This logistical backbone is crucial for sustaining the hospitality supply chain, facilitating imports of goods and equipment necessary for tourism infrastructure.
As tourism increasingly embraces international yachting, sailing, and boating activities, the alignment with cargo capacity expansions in certain regions enhances the accessibility and availability of goods and services for maritime tourism hubs, enabling vibrant yacht charters, boat rentals, and related experiences.
Summary and Outlook
Global air cargo demand continues its positive trajectory with 2.9% growth in September, extending a seven-month streak of expansion. Capacity has expanded in tandem, reflecting confidence among carriers. Regional results vary, with strong demand in Asia-Pacific and Africa offsetting declines in North America and Latin America. Trade lanes show a mixed performance but maintain overall growth, particularly across Asia-Europe corridors.
These results highlight air cargo’s adaptability amid changing global trade flows and underscore its importance for connected industries, including international tourism. Fast, reliable freight serves as the backbone for seamless yachting and sailing experiences, contributing to vibrant boating destinations worldwide.
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